Every now and then you run into people who want to have online casino gambling discussions with you, which is great. You can share strategies, war stories and tips over a few cold drinks. The potential pitfall to this is the frustration that comes with a stubborn claim, one that someone will not let go of. Let’s look at a the biggest one – that something is “due” to happen, and debunk it.
“If the blackjack dealer’s won 10 times in a row, he’s due to bust.” This one, maybe, you could bring some validity to if you’re counting cards and are making a prediction based on probability and not a hunch. The truth is, though, that most people who make this statement wouldn’t know what the true count was if the dealer himself were calling it out to him. I can’t stress this enough: each hand is new. Each hand is unrelated to the last hand you just played. There is no carry over. It might be hard to let go of a big loss from the previous hand, but to make money at casino games, you have to bring your brain and check your heart at the door.
“If a roulette ball hits red 20 times in a row, it’s “due” to hit black, and you should bet your next few spins accordingly.” Wrong. Show me the mathematical reasoning behind something like this before it even escapes your lips. In fact, show me any study of any number of spins and I’ll show you a study that refutes your statement.
“I was “bound” to make my hand on the river.” Ah, the low-limit, ignorant, chain-smoking Hold ‘em player. Love these worthless comments. I just heard this phrase verbatim last weekend. Here’s the truth: if you were “bound” to get it, it was because statistically there was a greater than 50% chance of that card or suit or whatever coming up. Otherwise, you just got lucky. I’ve been lucky with the river a few times, and I didn’t feel like I was “due” to get the card. I felt like I escaped with some chips because I probably should’ve lost. If you’ve lost on the river 15 of your last 15 times, the 16th hand promises no leeway to the “down on their luck.” Again, a new hand, a new deal, a new set of odds.